My, my, my, it's getting crowded out there. A full year before the first primary race and the Democratic field is so full of candidates that any number of scenarios are possible as to who could end up with the Democratic nomination in 2008. You know, with this many candidates in the water, much less "testing it", the only sure bet in 2008 is that conventional wisdom will be anything but.... by the time we Democrats make it to Denver.

Face it, two years is a long time for front runners to have to stay "out front"... without stumbling. Which, being human and thus, getting tired, confused or just being hungry over the next 2 years is damn near impossible. Particularly when you consider that the 2nd and 3rd tier candidates will be throwing bombs all along the way.

Then there's the money. A few candidates already have it. Most though, are scrambling with Internet "grassroots" appeals to get it. Problem is, with this many candidates and this much time, the demand for cash will strain not just the the political ATM that California has become, but also, the entire Democratic money machine across the county. More likely than not, this will whittle down the number of candidates running before the first vote is even cast on Jan. 14, 2008 in Iowa. By then though, conventional wisdom could look mightily different.

So, let us gleefully forsake conventional wisdom for the moment and explore some hypotheticals, shall we?

The biggest bugaboo of CW is that Hilary has got it all wrapped up. Leading 2 to 1 in most national polls, she's got more money than AARP and does have, in Bill, the best campaign manager in the world. But the real question that has to be asked and which is a double edged sword for Hillary, is: is it time for a change?

If yes, she can make a strong argument that being the first woman President is a big change -- and it is. But is it enough of a change in the voter's minds? For Hillary's biggest liability is that she would be "more of the same" and by same I mean a continuation of Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton. Are voters tired of American's two political dynasties battling it out? I suspect they might be. Who knows, after 4 to 8 years of Hillary, Jeb Bush may have had enough time to salvage his family's political fortunes and make a presidential bid of his own. And it doesn't end there. Already their is scuttlebutt that the Clintons really do want to be "the First Family" -- to have served -- and are grooming Chelsey, as I write.

And don't forget George P. Bush. Truth is, this could actually could go on ad-infinitum unless the voters put a stop to it in 2008. And I think they may want too.

This desire for a fresh face has, of course, benefited Sen. Barrack Obama the most, and he should not be underestimated. If he plays his cards right and inspires a lot of our currently non-voting citizens to register to vote -- and then actually turns them out to vote for him -- he will win. He has the ability, the brains and the charisma to do it. But he must understand, that in large part, his is an outside game. And, in order to win, he must create new voters out of those citizens who currently don't vote. As much as his paid political consultants may not like it, he can't win if he merely pays attention to the current pool of "regular voters". In this big a field, regular voters not only have divided loyalties, but they also divvy up the vote in such discouragingly small segments that there is no such thing as momentum for any candidate.

Sen. O'Bama's best bet is to win decisively by expanding the pool of voters with supporters that are true to him only. Again, inspiration is his key. If he can move otherwise apathetic and discouraged "new voters" to believe in him, it's all over but the keynote in Denver. Sen. O'bama, with his message of hope, seems to realize this. Now, if he has the internal fortitude to forgo what his "handles" are telling him - they hate new voters and voter registration drives -- and does in fact put together a first class voter registration and GOTV effort, not only could he win the nomination and the presidency, but he could, for the first time since 1968, put the South back into the Democratic column. As big as this field is, I don't think that there is another Democrat who could pull that off. That's the true potential of an Obama campaign that focus on enfranchising millions of new voters -- and their families -- as well as going after his fair share of regular voters.

Then there's former Senator, John Edwards, who -- should he win in Iowa, come in 2nd in New Hampshire, take Nevada and then, repeat a victory in South Carolina -- would be the front runner that all others have to beat. Edwards has been living in Iowa and allegedly has the best organization. In New Hampshire he just has to "show or place well" and Nevada's labor unions are giving him an organizational leg up in that caucus state. All this, before hitting South Carolina, which he'd won in 2004.

Conventional wisdom has it that he could do just that, and the good Senator with a populist streak is working very hard to make sure that happens. But, then again, with all those candidates and all this time, a Senator Dodd or Biden, or even a Governor Richardson on a roll during a debate, could lay all that conventional wisdom to waste, as well.

The biggest problem the Democrats may face in 2008 is find a stage big enough or a format flexible enough to have debates that amount to anything. Debates that would -- we can only hope -- allow Democratic voters an opportunity to contrast and compare this gaggle of candidates in a meaningful way. Much less see the mud fly!
Which is almost a certainty with all these candidates fighting to stand out in the crowd... by any means necessary. So, with all contenders, mutually bloodied and none unbowed, the conventional wisdom of a front runner itself could fall victim to this crowded field. With each candidate winning nowhere near enough primary votes to put them over the top in Denver.

Should it happen that no candidate has enough votes on the first ballot or the 33rd to capture the nomination, conventional wisdom goes right out the window again, as the "go to guy" in such a fractious, overheated and ugly atmosphere would be Al Gore. Al Gore, who with his new Academy Award and the tens of millions of dollars in free publicity that go along with it, will actually be better known to most voters then all those other candidates who "had to run" to raise 10 times that much money and never even broke double digits.

And come the General election, Al will be known by the voters that really count -- and can be counted on, cause they're fans -- the "people magazine" readers. You know, the ones who love popularity contests and see modern politics as little more than a grandiose popularity contest. These true fans, who may or may not detest the war, but do want to save the polar bears will give Al a landslide in 2008, mainly because he picked up the Oscar.

Then again, this could all be for not. Should the Congressional hearings of Conyers, Waxman and Dingell -- to name just a few -- produce evidence of high crimes and misdemeanors, and the impeachment of the President and Vice President results, Nancy Polosi would be the first female president and the Democratic nominee in 2008.

So much for conventional wisdom.


Shawn Casey O'Brien can be heard every Tuesday from 3-4 p.m. PST on radio station KPFK's Access Unlimited (90.7 FM). The disability awareness show for people born "in the know" or who arrive there accidentally.

Well, it seems that our slippery trickster of a governor is at it again. Playing politics with the lives and well-being of California's most vulnerable citizens, all so he and his elite/corporate patrons won't have to shoulder any further tax burdens... slight though they may be. Once again, by playing fast and loose with reality and lacking any core philosophical beliefs, except those which are expedient and help his public image, Arnold is trying to balance the budget on the backs of the poor, the children and the mentally ill and still call himself a "good guy."

Did we forget that we live in the most affluent state, in the richest county that the world has ever known and yet, it seems, we can't get our fiscal house in order without taking away from the meager resources of the poor and the disabled. Worst, let us not forget, it was the Democratic Establishment, who deserted their nominee in 2006 to rally Arnold, that should be ashamed and held in part, responsible for this sorry state of affairs.

Did we forget that this is the same bad actor who went after workers, teachers and firefighters in the Special Election? Or that he has fought for years to cut the social programs of seniors and disabled citizens, undermining the middle class existence of their families and communities in the process. Have we, as Democrats, forgotten that he wants to -- once again -- raise fees on students already staggered by the interest due on student loans. Did we forget all this?

If so, as they say, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. It's time to look at the fool in the mirror, cause Arnold is at it again.

Can those big Hollywood fundraisers and Party titans who cheered Arnold on in his re-election bid, really be happy that the Governor is proposing to extend healthcare to Californian children, on the one hand, while cutting their welfare checks and stealing their breakfasts, with the other. Can they? Before you answer that, please remember that a malnourished child's brain can never learn or function properly and that no amount of remedial work afterwards can remedy the problem. Truth is, if you really want to fight illiteracy, you have to feed children a good hardy breakfast, for up to 12 years. For the record, the number one characteristic that people in prison share is, illiteracy.

So, if you want to keep our prisons full, stop feeding children. The permanent damage done to their small brains and their resulting inability to read so much as a stop sign will guarantee a bumper crop of convicts down the road. But don't worry, Arnold's got that covered. He's proposed billions in new prison construction, while taking a half a billion dollars, quite literally, out of the mouths of babes. Between illiteracy and victimless drug crimes, the "prison industry" of the future (both public and privatized) will be booming. Thus, as much as I support the expansion of healthcare, it seems to me to be just another slight-of-hand trick by the Governor to give him cover, while he and his anti-tax policies continue to punish the poor.

And that's just for starters, Don't forget, he wants to take 55 million from treatment for the mentally ill. Cut another 25 million from drug diversion programs mandated under prop.36 and cut the pay of workers who help people with disabilities live independent (and cost effective) lives outside of institutions. All so he doesn't have to raise taxes. Of course, he has no problem borrowing billions of dollars and indebting future generations so that he and those of his ilk -- or dare I say "class" -- can continue to have a free lunch.

That's fine with him, now... but I have to wonder how those future generations -- who will have their own problems to deal with and pay for -- will feel about Arnold when they look back at more than just his phony tough guy movies. Not too fondly, I suspect. The only people they may despise more are the spineless celebrity obsessed Democrats who enabled this guy to play politics with the well-being of so many of today's Californians, while passing the bill off to future generations.

I think what those generations will be saying as they look back is: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on all of you!

Shawn Casey O'Brien can be heard every Tuesday from 3-4 p.m. on KPFK's Access Unlimited (90.7 FM). The disability awareness show for people born "in the know" or who arrive there accidentally.

2006 PCH Press. All Rights Reserved

As of late there has been a lot complaining from all sides of the political spectrum that although Bush and the Republicans are in serious trouble with an unnecessary and un-winnable war, their inept handlings of Katrina and ethical scandal after scandal, it is Democrats -- outrage of outrage – who have no alternative agenda or message to offer voters.

Recalling Napoleon’s sound advice to ‘get out of the way” when your opponent is busy self-destructing; I humbly put forth an agenda and a message for the Democrats that, presented with a good dose of testicular fortitude, will sweep them into control of at least one chamber of government in 2006. Regardless of the Republican’s self-inflicted wounds… or partial recovery from them.

Giving Democrats, what Republicans fear most… subpoena power. Subpoena power that would uncover just how much corruption, theft and cronyism really did take place under “Dubya” and exactly what that cost the American people in blood, treasure and prestige.

In order to put these culprits under oath in 2007, the message that the Democrats must put forth in 2006 is simple, straightforward and comprehensive.

Democrats, must promise that when elected they shall repeal and repair all the damage done by Bush and the radical right over the last 6 years.

Quite simply, Democrats will:

End the war

Rescind the tax cuts to the wealthy

Repeal the new bankruptcy laws, energy bills and phony prescription drug benefits.

End No Child Left-Behind

Reform and restore pollution and environmental regulation

Re-regulate all public utilities in the public interest

In other words, Democrats should run on a platform that is a complete repudiation of Bush II, his polices and his Neo-Con handlers. And they should do it with gusto if they wish to swing those “swing voters” back into the Democratic column.


Consider such an agenda:


End the War now! By immediately beginning to bring the troops home in the safest, sanest fashion possible. “Re-deploy” outside Iraq, as Congressman Murtha recommends. This would protect our departing troops and allows us to still have the capacity to destroy and deter any of the terrorist training camps that our foolish invasion created.

Bring back diplomacy and -- once established -- deal with whatever government or governments come out of the civil war we have unleashed in Iraq. Repairing the damage we have done to Iraq will be an immense job and sage conciliation is a must if we are to begin to undo all the physical, strategic and diplomatic harm we have done.


Repeal the Bush tax cuts to the most fortunate among us.
Those individuals and corporations, who, over the last 5 years, have been able to shirk their civic duty and avoid paying their fair share of taxes. This lack of shared sacrifice -- particularly in a time of war -- irks more than a few middle/working class people. They realize that they are the ones upon whom the shifting tax burden has fallen, be it income taxes or payroll taxes. They realize too, that this lack of tax fairness has caused their standard of living to shrink and their community’s infrastructure to fall apart.

Democrats have to remember their historic mission of protecting the average citizen against the excess of concentrated wealth and can begin by repealing these fiscally dangerous and unjust tax cuts for millionaires and their brokers.


Repeal the bankruptcy laws that were enacted to protect predatory leaders and turn the rest of us into indentured servants to the credit card industry. Give back to the average citizen the right to a clean slate and the ability to start over when the great calamities of life befall us, like prolonged sickness, unemployment or divorce.

Repeal the phony prescription drug bill which is, at it core, a scam to give billions of dollars of tax payer’s money to the drug and insurance companies; while offering little in the way of coverage for 44 million of our fellow citizens. Do away with the donut-holes, co-pays and premiums and simply make prescription drug coverage part of Medicare, which, with it bulk buying power and 2% administrative overhead would save us billions of dollars over the long haul. These substantial savings could then be used to extend healthcare coverage to the currently uninsured.

Repeal the new energy bill that has $80 billion in subsidies and tax brakes for the oil and gas companies. These rugged individualists and the companies they run are making millions of dollar every hour of everyday due to global squeeze on oil and the oilmen in the White House. Democrats should promise to sit aside $80 billion dollars to help low income and middle class families pay their skyrocketing home heating bills. It’s going to be a long cold winter before the 2006 elections and people are not going to forget the chill they endured by Election Day.

Repeal the “No Child Left Behind” law, that dismal failure that teaches our children nothing more than how to “study for the test” and does nothing to develop the analytical abilities they will need to operate as ration beings in the increasingly irrational 21st century.

Restore the clean air and water acts, and do away with “clear sky” programs, that let polluters pollute and “green tree” projects that allow for the clear cutting of the little that is left of our virgin forests.

Restore the FDA to the old days when drugs were really studied before being released to the public and former lobbyist were barred from sitting on any agency that formerly regulated them.

Re-regulate all public utilities and necessities -- water, power, the airways, etc. for the public good.

All utilities and their regulatory agencies, if not directly
de-regulated under ol’ G.W., were peopled by his agency and regulatory appointments. We will feel the effect of GW long after he is gone, regardless of the outcome of 2006. Democrats must promise to act as a check on their authority.

And finally Democrats should unashamedly and unabashedly come out in favor of science and rationality, and regardless of personal religious beliefs promise to fight both greenhouse gases and the pseudo science of modern day creationist.

In so many words, if the Democrats want to take back Congress in 2006 and regain the power to put scoundrels under oath they must repudiate everything Bush and his bandits have provoked, stolen, dismantled, or compromised.

Repeal, repair and restore are the bywords to victory for the Democrats in 2006. Undoing the damage done by the Bush years must be their promise kept.